Lopes (1986) suggests that signal detection theory is a better model than classical logic or inference for most everyday decisions. Essentially, the action is prescribed by the signals – and the quality of choices often rests on whether the signals are picked-up or missed. This is also the basis for Gary Klein‘s recognition primed decision making. E. Gibson’s (1969) work suggests that expertise in decision making depends on learning to attune to the signals that specify the affordances. Finally, the reason that hindsight is 20/20 is that the signals are generally quite obvious in retrospect.
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