Hindsight often leads to plausible causal narratives to explain known outcomes. However, these narratives typically trivialize many of the complexities associated with the actual experience of living forward. If we shift the goal of historical analysis from looking for causes (reductive) to simulating situations (reproductive), we may be in a better position to empathize with historical figures, to appreciate the challenges faced, and to learn lessons that will prepare us to address similar challenges in the future. Since we have to live forward – we should try to avoid backward thinking.
See john Flach’s post on Linked-In